Interesting points you make and interesting graphs - and (caveat - not having full access to the data), as an initial observation you could easily read it as cannibalisation of expired sales by aftermarket sales.
I agree there could be "some" cannibalisation, but I would be very surprised if it was more than say 30%.
In my experience 90% of the domains I have let expire were not bid on in the expiry auctions by others. Which stands to reason, given that I only let domains of limited or no value expire. So putting them on the AMA prior to their expiration does not change the outcome for the majority of my worthless domain purchases.
My sense is that the "quality" of domains expiring is reducing.
Of course this is hard to prove definitively, but anecdotally it feels obvious at least to me, given that it has been my experience that for domains that I had bought on the expiry auctions at least 2 years ago but later decided that I no longer wished to develop and subsequently placed them back for sale on the AMA have typically achieved results that were between 100% - 300% higher than what I purchased them for years ago.
This would suggest that the value buyers are willing to bid on domains at expiry auctions has substantially INCREASED over this period therefore if the quality of domains expiring had remained the same over this time then this should result in a corresponding INCREASE in the number of domains being bought as the previously marginal domains become viable.
However we have seen the opposite, which suggests a dramatic drop in quality.
And this may also help support the growth in the AMA sales given that the higher quality domains are now clearly to be found on the AMA so I suspect that the AMA sales to over time will become the dominant factor in NetFleet's sales.
And I think if the number and quality of expiring domains continues to fall then it stands to reason that NetFleet will have a growing incentive to put the greater focus on AMA domains that are up for auction.
It would be great to see similar separate graphs of value as well as unit sales for expired and aftermarket.
I too would love to see the breakdown of the three different platforms in terms of volume and values.
And sales this month have been pretty good.
That's great to hear!