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DomainNames

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http://www.smh.com.au/technology/bi...ere-starts-to-look-bubbly-20110509-1eesv.html

get ready for a new bunch of Aussie .com Millionaires this year and next!They might come from this forum!



The tantalising prospect of finding the next Facebook, Groupon or Twitter is driving the biggest rush of venture capital into the internet start-up arena since dot-com mania first boomed and then fizzled more than a decade ago.

More than $US5 billion of venture capital investment flowed into young web companies globally in the first four months of the year, data from Thomson Reuters Deals Intelligence shows.

Advertisement: Story continues below Though small compared with the boom years, the sum puts 2011 on track to be the busiest in dollar terms since 2000, when more than $US55 billion was deployed to back nascent technology firms.

The latest frenzy bears some of the hallmarks of the previous web investment craze - exuberance over "concept" start-ups that have not launched their sites and intense competition among potential backers to place bets in presumptive hot spots, such as the social media space now defined by the likes of Facebook and LinkedIn.

Entrepreneurs such as Clara Shih, chief executive of Hearsay, a San Francisco-based specialty software provider, enjoy more leverage with investors than last time and talk about having their pick of potential backers. Shih said she had already raised $US3 million, when cash came knocking at her door.

"Honestly, we weren't thinking of raising money, but now it's kind of landed on our lap, we may be open to it," Shih said in an interview with Reuters Insider.

Herd investment behavior gives rise to talk that another Internet bubble is forming, particularly when analysts see valuations on the order of $US70 billion for Facebook and $US15 billion for Groupon calculated from private investments.

"I've heard ... many venture capitalists who are saying, 'No, there's not a bubble,'" said Dana Stalder, a partner in the Silicon Valley office of the venture capital firm Matrix Partners.

"When you're seeing valuations double in the last 12 months for the same company, the same team, it feels like a bubble to me."

But other characteristics of the current boom do set it apart from the one that ended in collapse 10 years ago.

•VC investors say more of today's young companies are profitable or on a clearer path to profitability as the advent of cloud computing helps to lower operating costs dramatically from a decade ago.
•Online advertising and e-commerce, in their infancy a decade ago, have matured into accepted and more reliable revenue sources.
•The rush to cash out through an initial public offering has slowed. Bountiful sources of private investment, a raft of new public company disclosure regulations and the growth of alternative venues for trading private company shares provide the means and incentive to delay going public.
Perhaps the most distinguishing factor from the "It's different this time" litany is that today's web frenzy is global.

In the three years that marked the height of the last boom, 1999 through 2001, the VC industry sank $US96.4 billion into web start-ups, with more than 80 per cent of that or nearly $US78 billion in the United States alone, the Thomson Reuters data show. Of 10,755 VC deals over that run, 7174 took place in the US market.

Not so today. Of the more than $US5 billion of VC money invested so far in 2011, just $US1.4 billion has been deployed in US start-ups. according to Thomson Reuters data. Roughly three quarters of the 403 deals have taken place overseas.

Moreover, it is the big deals that as often as not are now happening outside of the United States. Of the 25 biggest consumer internet deals last year, 15 were non-US investments, according to Quid, a Silicon Valley research start-up that tracks VC investment flows. Nearly half, 12, were Chinese.

The investors as well as the start-ups have an increasingly international flavor. Perhaps the most notable new face among today's internet king makers is Russian billionaire Yuri Milner, CEO of DST Global. Milner has invested hundreds of millions of dollars in Facebook, Groupon and Zynga. Last month his firm invested $US500 million in 360Buy,com, China's biggest business-to-consumer website.

While one of the distinguishing characteristics of the new boom is the tendency to remain private for a longer period, the IPO pipeline is nevertheless filling up with internet names.
So far in 2011, 16 web firms have filed IPO documents with US securities regulators, seeking to raise proceeds estimated at nearly $US4.1 billion, according to Thomson Reuters data. That already tops the full-year totals for every year except 1999, when 52 companies filed to raise $US4.2 billion.

Reuters



Read more: http://www.smh.com.au/technology/bi...look-bubbly-20110509-1eesv.html#ixzz1LoaU0Wy3


READ THIS ALSO!!

http://www.smh.com.au/technology/te...he-heady-dotcom-boom-days-20110505-1e9kr.html
 
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Chris.C

Top Contributor
Agreed - new bubble is forming. Idiots are throwing money into the industry because they have watched a movie called Social Network.

Sell into the rally boys, buy on the drop.

With any luck if/when this tanks the market will throw the baby out with the bath water and good companies like Google, Amazon, Apply which have been operating sustainable businesses and have proved it year after year will also be able to be bought on the cheap.
 

Lorenzo

Top Contributor
Of course the bubble is forming.....here what I wrote a few days ago in this thread:

http://www.namepros.com/the-break-room/713227-how-long-before-usa-defaults-they.html

meanwhile Wall Street is living on its own world with already new IPOs that look like we are well in the middle of the bubble cycle. The Chinese version of Facebook Renren is about to hit the market with a ridiculous (that's my opinion as an expert financial adviser) price-to-revenue ratio of 52 and a price-to-operating profit ratio of 519. (For comparison, Google's price-to-revenue ratio has been hovering around 5.5-6.5 for most of the last year and its market-cap-to-operating-profit-ratio using data for 2010 is 15.6.)

and on the opening day RenRen went as high as $24 :eek:
 

DomainNames

Top Contributor
Disagree about a bubble. Is there a resources bubble? No the resources market ( just like domain names and web businesses) are growing so the value and investment is also increasing. Supply and demand.
 

Shane

Top Contributor
Disagree about a bubble. Is there a resources bubble? No the resources market ( just like domain names and web businesses) are growing so the value and investment is also increasing. Supply and demand.

It is this very attitude that contributes to bubbles. All booms eventually bust, it doesn't matter if you're talking about websites, resources, shares, or tulips in 17th century Netherlands...

It's just the way the world works. Always has, always will.
 

DomainNames

Top Contributor
It is this very attitude that contributes to bubbles. All booms eventually bust, it doesn't matter if you're talking about websites, resources, shares, or tulips in 17th century Netherlands...

It's just the way the world works. Always has, always will.

Two sides to every story. Two sides to every Coin. Two sides to every Dollar. Two side to every investor... Bullish or Bearish. If you think there is a bubble coming choose your side maybe?

The story was not about a bubble.. maybe some people are misreading it!... Pessimist verses Optimist...

Either way if people are afraid and want to sell their generic names for fear of a bubble please make sure you list them on netfleet and we will bid and buy them if we see value... We have never been so confident in the .com.au market as in the last year and we believe firmly its got many years of potential great ROI.

Many Millionaires are created in a depression and many are created in stock market crashes and bubbles! You can often choose what side you want to be on... but sometimes of course you cant. "Fear of a bubble" thinking probably wont help you but either way
 
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Chris.C

Top Contributor
Two sides to every story. Two sides to every Coin.
Everyone is entitled to predict the future - that doesn't make that individual's opinion right, valuable or even remotely possible. Only the future determines the value of those individual's opinions.

As for my valueless opinion, I personally think we are starting to see some hot air flow back into IT industry bubble, but with that said we are only at the start of a new bubble because the really interesting thing about bubbles is just because prices have gone up doesn't mean they can't go higher.

Greater fool theory.

;)

Of course inevitability reality dawns and the unbreakable financial laws become apparent and the simple premise of "that which is unsustainable will not be sustained" becomes clear. Then the rush for the exits...

Ongoing exponential growth is an impossibility (the IT industry is no exception) those that believe in it should take a simple maths test.


Bullish or Bearish. If you think there is a bubble coming choose your side
Come on be nice to the bears.

It's hard work being a bear, you gotta stand on the sidelines and wait while everyone makes bucket loads of money, while they live the high life, and we just say "you just wait - prices will fall - this is not sustainable" and of course we are then so quickly hated when proven right because no one likes someone that says "I told you so".

:p

It's a tough life being a bear.

That said I'm not much of a bear myself, at least not yet.

We have never been so confident in the .com.au market as in the last year and we believe firmly its got many years of potential great ROI.
I don't know about "many" years but I'm pretty optimistic for the next 12 - 24 months.

Any further out than that and my crystal ball gets very blurry, I think it has something to do with the tech industry innovating so quickly, though I should speak with my crystal ball repair man about it.

:rolleyes:

Many Millionaires are created in a depression and many are created in stock market crashes and bubbles! You can often choose what side you want to be on... but sometimes of course you cant. "Fear of a bubble" thinking probably wont help you but either way
The secret is not to go into debt. A man who has no debt choose his own destiny and only loses what he has to lose.

And maybe even more important than this is - stick to what you know.

Eg. Packer and coupon sites = fail.
 
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Shane

Top Contributor
Two sides to every story. Two sides to every Coin. Two sides to every Dollar. Two side to every investor... Bullish or Bearish. If you think there is a bubble coming choose your side maybe?

The story was not about a bubble.. maybe some people are misreading it!... Pessimist verses Optimist...

Either way if people are afraid and want to sell their generic names for fear of a bubble please make sure you list them on netfleet and we will bid and buy them if we see value... We have never been so confident in the .com.au market as in the last year and we believe firmly its got many years of potential great ROI.

This has nothing to do with being afraid and wanting to sell good domains, it's more about not overpaying for assets and recognising when prices are reaching an unsustainable level.

Do I think prices are at an unsustainable level yet? No, I don't, and I'm still buying when I see good value. But do I think prices will continue to rise at the same rate indefinitely with zero risk of a correction? Absolutely not.

And anyway, I didn't say there was a bubble. I made the simple statement that all booms eventually bust, and that attitudes like yours can contribute to bubbles.

If you think that domain and website valuations will continue going up forever, then I assume you have every cent invested online?

I tell you what, if I had your 100% belief that online investments will continue to boom indefinitely, I would be applying for every cent of debt I could get my hands on and investing the lot. Is that what you've done, or are you not quite that confident in the market?

Many Millionaires are created in a depression and many are created in stock market crashes and bubbles! You can often choose what side you want to be on... but sometimes of course you cant. "Fear of a bubble" thinking probably wont help you but either way

You're right, plenty of people do make money during crashes and busts, but if you think they make money by continuing to buy assets at the top of the market with your blind optimism, then you are very much mistaken.

People who make money throughout the cycle are those who recognise when asset prices are reaching an unsustainable level (the bubble). At that point they leave the buying to the greedy or naive optimists who think that prices will keep booming. Inevitably prices do fall (happens every time) and the smart ones come back in to pick up the scraps.

I hate to bring out an over-used Warren Buffet quote, but it sums up this situation perfectly:

"Be fearful when others are greedy and greedy when others are fearful".
 

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